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May 20, 2024: Canucks-Oilers: Look to the total in a tight Game 7

Yesterday brought us a pair of Game 7s on the hardwood and a fantastic finish at Valhalla. While the action may be a bit more limited on this Monday, we still do have a do-or-die seventh game that is always going to be appointment TV.

Today's picks and sports betting news you need to know
 
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Canucks-Oilers: Look to the total in a tight Game 7 

Vancouver Canucks forward Elias Pettersson (40) checks Edmonton Oilers forward Mattias Janmark (13). Bob Frid-USA TODAY Sports

Yesterday brought us a pair of Game 7s on the hardwood and a fantastic finish at Valhalla. While the action may be a bit more limited on this Monday, we still do have a do-or-die seventh game that is always going to be appointment TV.

Another Game 7 headlines tonight

We'll soon know the final Conference Final participant among the entire NBA and NHL fields after tonight, with the Vancouver Canucks hosting the Edmonton Oilers.

No team has won two straight in this series, which would conceivably suggest the Canucks at home may be the play to make, but we feel far more inclined to simply bet the total than choose a winning side.

We've seen only two Game 7s this postseason on the ice, and the unders have cashed both times. Something about Game 7s tend to see the defensive intensity rise, with players blocking more shots and offenses a bit more conservative in order to avoid mistakes.

We're following that here and betting the under, though we'd like to buy it up a goal to 6.5, just for some added insurance. Three straight meetings have gone under that total, with two of them ending on five, and again: we expect a tight matchup.

To bring us to a better price, we're tacking on Elias Pettersson to log 2+ shots. Vancouver's Pettersson has hit that mark in five of six this series, including all three at home. He has 2+ shots in 14 of his last 17 against Edmonton, and he's been the Canucks' steadiest shooter of late, piling up 6+ attempts in three straight. 

His prop down at that number brings our Game 7 angle to plus-money, and that's where we'll go as we fade the goals in this one later tonight.

Betting: Under 6.5 goals & Elias Pettersson 2+ shots (+141 FanDuel)


In the news ...

Timberwolves and Pacers win Game 7s — The Indiana Pacers came out hot and did not relent, taking down the Knicks in New York 130-109. The Pacers have had the pleasure of facing some injury-ridden teams on their way to the Eastern Conference Final, and books aren't taking them too seriously, as Boston is currently -1200 to advance to the NBA Finals. Out West we saw an instant classic, with the Minnesota Timberwolves clawing out of a 20-point hole in the second half to take down the defending champs in Denver, advancing to their first Western Conference Final in 20 years. We have some exciting, fresh blood in this one between Anthony Edwards and the T-Wolves and Luka Doncic and the Mavericks. Minnesota is priced at -170 to win the series, with Dallas at +145.

Xander Schauffele wins first major with -21 at PGA Championship — Finally! Xander Schauffele has done it and gotten over the hump to win his first major championship. Schauffele came out firing with a 62 on Thursday, which proved to be the difference, beating Bryson DeChambeau by one stroke thanks to a birdie on the 18th hole. Entering Sunday, Schauffele was the only golfer ranked in the top five in the world without a major championship. No longer. Schauffele is +1400 to keep it rolling and win the U.S. Open in a few weeks, behind Scottie Scheffler (+400) and Rory McIlroy (+900).

Manchester City wins fourth-straight Premier League title — Manchester City put on a bow on their continued English Premier League dominance, winning their fourth-straight EPL title and their sixth in seven years. Phil Foden capped off his Premier League Player of the Year campaign with two goals on Sunday in Man City's 3-1 win over West Ham United.


Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll. Follow him on Substack: griffybets.substack.com.

Quick Picks

1 Edmonton Oilers @ Vancouver Canucks

Yes, this series has gone seven games, but we still believe Edmonton is the far superior team. With Brock Boeser now out for Vancouver due to blood clotting, we have a hard time seeing the Canucks do enough to win this. We're on the Oilers' moneyline at -156.
Monday, 9:00 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Oilers
-1 (+102) -156 > 5.5 (-115)
Canucks
+1.5 (-196) +136 < 5.5 (+102)
2 Chris Sale over 6.5 Ks 

Sale has been simply superb for Atlanta this season and is worth backing once again in the second game of this doubleheader between the Padres and Braves. Sale is over this line in six of eight this season, including three straight outings with 9+ Ks. Last time he saw San Diego, he finished with eight strikeouts. Grab his over at an awesome price.

Latest Odds:  +126
3 Bobby Witt Jr. over 1.5 total bases 

Bobby Witt Jr. is picking up some steam of late, logging a hit in three straight and piling up eight total bases during that stretch. Witt has enjoyed some nice games against Reese Olson, piling up two singles, a triple and a homer in nine plate appearances. We'll ride that history here with Witt's TB prop.

Latest Odds:  -130
4 Connecticut Sun @ Indiana Fever

These teams are just on drastically different levels. Connecticut is 3-0 with a +17.8 net-rating, while Indiana is 0-3 with a -28.7 net-rating. The choice seems simple: back the Sun at -5.5.
Monday, 7:00 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Sun
-5.5 (-118) -245 > 162.5 (-118)
Fever
+6.5 (-110) +205 < 162.5 (-112)
5 Seattle Storm @ New York Liberty

New York swept Seattle in four meetings last year and still seem poised to be one of the WNBA's best this season. As such, the only bet to make is to back the loaded Liberty. We're on New York -12.5.
Monday, 7:00 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Storm
+12.5 (-105) +550 > 166.5 (-118)
Liberty
-12.5 (-108) -750 < 166.5 (-112)

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